8 issues define US-Cuba talks. Here's what's at stake as nations talk
8 issues define US-Cuba talks. Here's what's at stake as nations talk
Antonio Fins, Palm Beach PostSat, May 23, 2026 at 4:19 PM UTC
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Confused and dizzied by all the back-and-forth Cuba developments? You may not be not alone.
Miami businessman and attorney Joe Garcia said it's easy to get lost in the "noise" and seesawing in events in the Cuba news cycle.
"The way I read it, there's a lot of noise out that is electoral and posturing, and from parties that are not at the table," said Garcia, who has been in touch with officials both in the administration of President Donald Trump and the Havana regime.
Garcia, a former congressman from South Florida, has engaged efforts to bolster U.S. commerce with Cuba and the development of small- and medium-sized enterprises on the island. As such, he has insight into the substance of the talks between the two legacy Cold War adversaries.
Most importantly, he said, it's the substance of the negotiations that matter more than the political "theater" surrounding them.
Baffled by all the Cuba headlines? Here is a scorecard of the issues at stake.
Release of political prisoners
Washington is demanding the release of the 1,000-plus political prisoners held by Cuban authorities. These are individuals jailed simply because they have, in one fashion or another, expressed opposition to the Cuba's communist and totalitarian regime.
"That's key because I think not to do that is going to be unacceptable to the Cuban-American electorate," Garcia said. "That is a must-have thing."
Economic reforms
The administration "has been very clear they need an opening-up of the economy," Garcia said, and not "just a limited opening of where and what."
The broad swath of Cuba is closed to foreign investors. Garcia said Havana, since March, has established some avenues in two key industries, medical and oil.
"But clearly that's far from what we need to see," he said.
Compensation for expropriated properties
This is a decades-old requirement, and one governed by American and international law, for compensation for properties and possessions seized by the Havana at the outset of the 1959 Cuban Revolution.
It has two subsets — claims by U.S. entities and those from Cuban nationals.
People wave Cuban and US flags as the motorcade of US President Donald Trump passes by on its way to Palm Beach International Airport in West Palm Beach, Florida, March 29, 2026. US President Donald Trump is returning to the White House after spending the weekend at his Mar-a-Lago residence. (Photo by Mandel NGAN / AFP via Getty Images)
Garcia said the former has largely been resolved — the regime is in principle willing to meet the demands that U.S. corporations and citizens be recompensed financially, although how remains to be worked out.
One possible breakthrough in talks so far is the developing pathway for addressing the losses of Cuban nationals.
Garcia said they would not get their old residential homes but would perhaps get title to land and other real estate-based assets. And there are lots of opportunities for those with vision and a willingness to invest, he said.
"You walk through Cuba, and you see there are huge amounts of abandoned factories, fallow fields, poorly operating old enterprises that are using equipment that's 60 and 70 years old that has not been modernized," he said.
"They need investment, and this is the most basic way to attract investment at a time where they have very little to trade that isn't land."
Political reform
Garcia said the United States is looking for some political pathway to change. And current U.S. embargo laws require political reforms.
Opening up the political system will be politically difficult for Havana, he said, but will be required to some degree.
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"It's something that would also seal the deal for the U.S.," he said.
US sanctions
Cuba wants the embargo on commerce and investment ended. Garcia, a Democrat, said Republican President Donald Trump is in a historic position and Havana would be remiss not to understand it.
"I'm throwing flowers to some degree, but there has never been a president in American history that could lift the embargo whole-cloth like Trump can," Garcia said, noting the president's grip and sway over his party and the MAGA movement.
"Not only does Trump have the power to do it, I think he would have the support to do it from Republicans. And I think many Democrats, given our party's historical position ... I don't think there'd be a doubt that most Democrats would also vote for that."
Admitting Cuba in multilateral international institutions
Once the economic sanctions are lifted, Cuba would be readmitted to so-called multilateral institutions. Havana would rejoin the Organization of American States. More importantly, it would get standing before financiers at the World Bank and the Inter-American Development Bank.
That would make Cuba a candidate for billions of dollars in loans to start reconstructing and redeveloping.
"Some of those funds could serve a very vital role of being an economic primer to other investment," Garcia said. "The IDB has a lot of money, and certainly Trump could give it more money because it's basically controlled by the United States."
Cuba would also come under the supervision of the International Monetary Fund, a necessary move, albeit an unpopular one in some quarters, Garcia said.
"Cuba spends money like a drunken sailor and that's part of the reason that they have such out-of-control devaluation right now," he said. "The IMF is the bane of existence of all left, free-spending governments because they are very fiscally conservative. And they are very much about getting monetary policy controlled, something that Cuba lost control of a long time ago."
Most Favored Nation trade status
This concession to Havana by the United States "will scare the bejesus out of people in Florida in particular," Garcia said, given the impact that free-trade agreements have had on the state's agriculture and manufacturing industries. But Garcia said Cuba produces commodities, like tropical fruits and coffee, that are not competitive.
"If you allowed Cuba that space, it would certainly create an economic incentive for people to bring agriculture, equipment and other things to bear in the chances of Cuba could be productive again," he said.
Cuba could also be competitive in high-technology fields and pharmaceuticals. "Cuba's greatest asset is, of course, humans, right?" Garcia said. "This is a country that maybe cash-poor, but its greatest resource, as South Florida has proved, is human capital."
The 500,000 Cuban deportables
The Cuban activist Aniurka Préstamo demonstrates outside the Freedom Tower in Miami on May 20, 2026, where U.S. prosecutors announced the indictment of Raul Castro in the 1996 deaths of four Brothers to the Rescue pilots shot down during a humanitarian mission.
Garcia said this is perhaps the most difficult issue — and one he views as counterproductive for Florida and the United States. It requires Cuba to accept the repatriation of as many as 500,000 people who came to the U.S., primarily during the Biden administration.
"This is something that Trump wants," Garcia said.
The roster of those targeted for deportation include those that were processed under the parole program as well as thousands of people "who are excludable because they committed a crime," he added.
Cuba is in dire straits, and certainly not in a position to take in 500,000 people, Garcia said. Discussions have focused on a program in which those individuals would get work permits and authorization to phase their removals over a time frame in years.
Those who have not committed a crime, don't leave any debts, comply with all existing laws and pay all their taxes would be granted access to a tourism visa program allowing them to visit the U.S. frequently after their return to Cuba.
Garcia said he does not favor the mass deportation of these individuals, but it is a Trump administration requirement.
Antonio Fins is a politics and business editor at The Palm Beach Post, part of the USA TODAY Florida Network. You can reach him at afins@pbpost.com. Help support our journalism. Subscribe today.
This article originally appeared on Palm Beach Post: 8 issues define US-Cuba negotiations after Raul Castro indictment
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