Prediction: Costco Will Trade At This Price in 2027
Prediction: Costco Will Trade At This Price in 2027
Vandita JadejaFri, June 19, 2026 at 1:55 PM UTC
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Quick Read -
COST posted 9.8% comps and 21.5% digital sales growth yet shares have slipped 6% over the past month.
Reaching $1,250 by 2027 demands a 27% gain and a re-rating to 58x forward earnings, a stretch this business has earned before.
Costco's 90% worldwide renewal rate and 649% decade return show why its premium multiple keeps expanding despite macro headwinds.
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Costco (NASDAQ:COST) just posted its strongest comp sales quarter of the fiscal year and the market shrugged. Q3 FY26 comps came in at 9.8%, membership fees grew 10.7%, and digitally-enabled sales jumped 21.5%.
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Yet shares have slipped 5.94% over the past month. That gap between operational momentum and price action is the kind of setup I pay attention to. Costco trades at $986.68. Can it reach $1,250 in 2027? Here is the path.
What's Holding Costco Back Right Now
The simple answer: valuation. Costco trades at roughly 49 times trailing earnings, and that multiple gets harder to defend when consumer confidence is cracking. University of Michigan sentiment dropped to 49.8 in April 2026, the lowest reading in the past year and approaching recessionary territory. Even a 0.87 beta does not protect a stock priced for perfection when the macro narrative turns.
Shares reflect that. Shares peaked near $1,048.95 on May 15 before pulling back. YTD is still respectable at +14.74%, but the 1-year return is just 0.8%. An EVP also sold 700 shares at $993 on April 1. These are simply reasons shares are stuck.
Wall Street Sees 9.7% Upside. Our Model Says 8.5%
Consensus is constructive but cautious. The analyst target sits at $1,082.33, with 3 strong buys, 19 buys, 13 holds, 1 sell, and 1 strong sell. Bullish skew runs 59%. Citi resumed coverage of Costco with a Neutral rating and $1,020 price target.
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Our base case lands at $1,070.32 with 90% confidence, with an optimistic case of $1,151.08 and a bear case of $976.48. My read: both Wall Street and our model are underweighting earnings acceleration. YoY earnings growth of 45.5% reads as a growth-stock figure attached to a recession-resistant business. That combination usually gets re-rated higher, not lower.
The Path to $1,250 Per Share
Reaching $1,250 from today's price of $986.68 would require a gain of 26.7%.
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With forward EPS of $21.69, a price of $1,250 implies a forward P/E of 58x. Our base case of $1,070.32 already implies 50x, meaning the bold target requires roughly 8x of additional multiple expansion.
Is that crazy? Not given the inputs. The 247Factor adjustment of 1.075 is driven by strong earnings momentum and 59% bullish analyst sentiment.
The catalysts are real: digitally enabled comparable sales rose 21.1% in the four weeks ending May 31 while total comps grew 12.5%. Costco is also positioned to outperform Walmart as gas prices surge because its affluent membership base absorbs fuel inflation.
And CFO Gary Millerchip announced targeted Kirkland Signature price reductions in May, a margin-positive trade in disguise. The primary risk is a consumer sentiment collapse that derails membership renewals.
Where Costco Trades Today vs Its Earnings Power
At $986.68 on forward EPS of $21.69, the stock trades around 45x forward earnings. Expensive on paper. Reasonable when you consider 89.7% worldwide renewal rates and 75% executive membership penetration.
Shares sit between a 52-week low of $841.69 and high of $1,096.50. Zoom out and the long term is striking: COST is up 649.43% over the last 10 years. That is the multiple-expansion engine in action.
Is $1,250 Realistic? Here's My Take
Reaching $1,250 requires a 26.7% gain and a re-rating to roughly 58x forward earnings. That is a stretch, but it is the kind of stretch this business has earned before.
Three things need to go right: earnings growth stays north of 13% per quarter, membership economics keep compounding, and the macro avoids an outright recession. What derails it is a sharp drop in renewal rates or a sentiment-driven multiple compression. Returns at this level shouldn't be expected every year, but we've outlined the blueprint for how Costco could reach $1,250 in 2027.
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Source: “AOL Money”
