Prediction: This Stock is Going to Plummet in The Second Half of 2026
Prediction: This Stock is Going to Plummet in The Second Half of 2026
Vandita JadejaFri, June 19, 2026 at 1:49 PM UTC
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Quick Read -
Intel (INTC) has surged over 260% year-to-date to $134, but our model rates it a SELL with a $103 price target.
Apple's (AAPL) U.S. chip partnership and NVIDIA's (NVDA) $5 billion equity stake form the bull case that could push Intel to $150.
Intel trades at 133x forward earnings with nearly $4 billion in negative free cash flow, placing the bear-case target at $77.
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Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) has been one of the most explosive turnaround stories of 2026, with shares up 263.12% year to date through June 18. After a 12% single-day surge on news of an Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) manufacturing partnership, the chipmaker trades at $133.99.
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Our 24/7 Wall St. price target for Intel is $102.57, implying a 12-month return of -23.45%. The model rates the stock a sell at current levels with 90% confidence.
Metric
Value
Current Price
$133.99
24/7 Wall St. Price Target
$102.57
Upside/Downside
-23.45%
Model Rating
Confidence
90%
Why We Could Be Wrong
Our 24/7 Wall St. price target sits well below current levels. The Apple foundry deal, the 10% U.S. government stake, and a confirmed role producing host CPUs for NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA)'s DGX Rubin NVL8 systems carry potential to push earnings well above our model. A full bull case appears below.
INTC price scenarioA 523% Rally Reset the Setup
Intel gained 523.5% over the past year and 20.93% in the past month. Trump's June 18 announcement that Apple would partner with Intel on U.S. chip production sent shares up 10.64% in one session.
Q1 2026 non-GAAP EPS came in at $0.29 against $0.0127 consensus, revenue grew 7.18% to $13.577 billion, and Data Center and AI revenue jumped 22%. CEO Lip-Bu Tan flagged a "sixth consecutive quarter of revenue above our expectations."
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The Case for $150+
If the bull case plays out, Intel's foundry strategy resembles a second TSMC. The Apple partnership, the multiyear Google (NASDAQ:GOOGL) collaboration on custom ASIC IPUs, and the $5 billion NVIDIA equity investment represent the external customer flywheel Tan has promised.
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Combined with $8.9 billion in CHIPS Act funding, Intel 18A entering high-volume manufacturing, and a Panther Lake AI PC platform spanning 200-plus OEM designs, the foundry segment could swing from a $2.51 billion quarterly operating loss to breakeven faster than consensus. Forward EPS could reset toward $1.50, and a 100x multiple gets Intel to $150.
Where the Math Breaks
The bear case rests on valuation. Intel trades at a forward P/E of 133x against TTM EPS of -$0.60. The Q1 GAAP net loss of $3.728 billion reflected a $4.07 billion Mobileye goodwill impairment, so the underlying business is operationally profitable, with non-GAAP gross margin reaching 41.0%. F
ree cash flow remains weak at -$3.867 billion on $4.963 billion in capex. If foundry losses persist or Intel 14A pauses on weak customer commitments, shares could fall to $76.56.
Intel Price Prediction 2026-2030
The 24/7 Wall St. price target stays at $102.57 with 90% model confidence. Forward earnings of $0.60 cannot support a $134 share price under any reasonable multiple.
Revisit the bull case if Intel signs a second flagship foundry customer and forward EPS estimates rise above $1.20. The setup weakens if foundry losses widen or 2026 free cash flow remains negative through year-end.
Our model projects Intel could trade at these levels, assuming current growth trajectories and foundry ramp progress on schedule.
Year
24/7 Wall St. Price Target
2026 (year-end)
$119.17
2027
$102.57
2028
$96.00
2029
$90.00
2030
$87.00
These projections assume Intel executes on its foundry strategy. Significant upside could come from sustained external customer wins, while a 14A pause or prolonged free cash flow burn would skew toward our $62.81 five-year bear case.
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Source: “AOL Money”
